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1. Where in the business cycle do you think Australia currently sits? Justify your assessment?

Business cycle is a periodically repeated sequence of fluctuations in the aggregate economy of an area, or the nation as a whole, varying in duration, and measured by changes in the gross national product (GNP) (McLver & Hettihewa 2004). Business cycle is consisting of upturn, expansion, peaking out and slowdown (Sloman & Norris 2008).  In the business cycle, Australia currently sits in the peaking out phase, during this phase, growth slows down or event ceases (Sloman & Norris 2008).  This can be measured by real gross domestic product, inflation, income for householders and the unemployment rate.

Gross domestic product is the money value of all final goods and services

produced within a country in a given period of time (Sloman & Norris 2008).  As Table 1 shows, average GDP in 2007 was 3.9 percent, which was 1.2 percent higher than year 2006. This suggests that Australia was experiencing a GDP expansion, and moving to a GDP peaking out. The main reasons of increasing in GDP were the increasing demand for iron ore, coal, uranium and agriculture products such as wheat, cotton and wool in China and India, which lead to huge volumes of trade (Shameen, 2008). Therefore, this could suggest that Australian’s economy is experiencing a peaking out.
Table 1 – Australian GDP
 
Source:  Trading Economics 2008
Inflation is the annual percentage increase in the price level www.51lunwen.org (Sloman & Norris 2008). As Table 2 shows, there was a steady growth of inflation rates from 2004 to Mar 2008, and reached to 3.5 % in Mar 2008. The Trading Economics (2008) predicted the Australian inflation

rate will continue to grow in 2008 to 2009, and the interest rate will also continue to grow from 7.25 % in 2008 8.34% in 2009. This can impose costs on individuals and the economy, and reduce level of consumption. Therefore, Australian’s economy would slowdown in 2008 – 2009, and will experience a peak out.
Table 2 – Australian Inflation Rate
 
Source: Trading Economics 2008

2. Over the last decade Australia has experienced a long period of economic growth. What have been the implications of this growth for the tourism and hospitality industries in 2007 and early 2008?